The 89th Annual Academy Awards will air next Sunday night on ABC. It has been a solid year at the movies, and although I’m not a fan of the host, Jimmy Kimmel, I still will be tuning in. With the Oscars being a week away (not to mention my own yearly awards on this site debuting on Feb 24), I figured I should put together my official Oscars predictions page. Below are the nominees for their respective categories. Also, this is just a predictions page and does not necessarily mean it is who I think should win, but rather who I think the Academy will claim victorious.
BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
I think the Academy got the nominees right, for the most part. I just don’t understand why they allow ten movies to be nominated for this award, yet the Academy has yet to actually nominate ten movies in a single year. Why leave an open spot, especially when every year there’s a snub that could’ve easily got a nomination? This year, I thought Nocturnal Animals should have gotten nominated as the tenth nominee, and I am surprised Elle didn’t sneak in as well, but either way, neither would have had a chance to win. Arrival set the bar high for sci-fi/alien encounter films going forward. Fences featured the best ensemble performance I have ever seen. Moonlight is an incredible, powerful movie that will stick with you long after you watch it. Hidden Figures is picking up steam as the hour draws near, but here is the bottom line – Hollywood loves Hollywood. La La Land is an instant classic set in the cutthroat Hollywood world. It is tied with All About Eve for the Oscar record with 14 nominations. Not only that, but it has a great chance to set the record for Oscar wins, which currently is 11 by Titanic, Ben Hur and Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. There is no fix here if it wins, though. It would be well-deserved, as this was honestly at worst the second best film I saw this past year. It is the heavy favorite to win, and I would totally be fine with that.
Predicted Winner: La La Land
BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantasic
Denzel Washington, Fences
This is one category I think La La Land will not win. Gosling was okay, but nothing special in my opinion. Casey Affleck was the favorite for quite a while this season until Fences came out. Denzel put his heart and soul into this movie (he also directed the film) and it showed. Affleck won the Golden Globe, but Washington won the SAG. His epic performance will give the academy no choice but to reward him with the win.
Predicted Winner: Denzel Washington, Fences
BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
This category may be the toughest to project. All five of these women have a good chance to win and all are well-deserved to be here. There has been a lot of talk about this category, since Amy Adams failed to earn a nomination here for her role in Arrival, despite the fact that she is the focal point of a film that earned eight other nominations in total. Although she was great in the movie, who can you take off this list to put her on it? Huppert, who is the star of perhaps one of the best movies nobody has seen in Elle, pulled off a huge upset and won the Golden Globe (in the Drama category) last month. However, Emma Stone is going for the hat trick, as she already has won the Golden Globe (in the Comedy/Musical category) and the SAG. The academy also loves historical films, and Natalie Portman was a spitting image of Jackie Kennedy in Jackie. Her dynamic performance deserves an Oscar win, but I think Stone won over the academy’s heart and they will give her the win.
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, La La Land
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
First off, I was thrilled at the fact that both Michael Shannon and Jeff Bridges landed nominations in this category. Both were excellent in their respective films. I have been a huge fan of Michael Shannon for some time now. He is the classic “oh, it’s the guy from (blank)” actor, but people will soon know his name after this, or at least start to call him “the guy who won the Oscar.”
Predicted Winner: Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
This category is a hard one to project, as well. Michelle Williams has come a long way from her Dawson’s Creek days. She is now one of the best actresses in the world. This is her fourth Oscar nomination, but she is still looking to take home the trophy for the first time. Unfortunately, I don’t think it will be this year. Octavia Spencer received the nomination, but you could argue that she was not even the best supporting actress of her own film, since Taraji P. Henson and Janelle Monae were also great in Hidden Figures. Viola Davis and Naomie Harris were both phenomenal in their respective powerful performances, though. I am having a hard time figuring out how neither of them are in the lead actress category, though, since they both are the main female characters in their films.
Predicted Winner: Viola Davis, Fences
BEST DIRECTOR
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Shout out to all these men for directing such powerful, spellbinding movies this year. Mel Gibson appears to have served his appropriate penance to the Hollywood folks for his issues in years past. A nomination for him is a win in itself. However, I don’t think the academy will give him an Oscar just yet. Villeneuve directed what may be the best sci-fi picture of all-time. Equally impressive is the fact that, in the same year, both Lonergan and Jenkins directed two of the most socially powerful pictures of all-time. I’m a big believer, though, in the idea that if you direct the best picture of the year, then consequently you should earn Best Director. As a result, I think Chazelle wins here, becoming I believe the youngest ever to win this award (32 years and 1 month old).
Predicted Winner: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
Barry Jenkins wrote and directed Moonlight, which was perhaps the deepest movie of the year. Dealing with a boy raising himself into a man, while raising his drug-addicted mother into a woman in the process really tugs at your heart and your conscience. This movie couldn’t have come out at a more perfect time than now. Our society needs this movie right now to serve as a teacher of how we all can and should be more tolerant, understanding and embracing to all people, regardless of their race, sexual orientation, etc. Jenkins taught us in this movie that it’s never too late to change for the better. I think the academy will also recognize that.
Predicted Winner: Moonlight
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
This one should be interesting. La La Land may be the favorite here and in every other nominated category, but I can help but to think The Lobster wouldn’t have been nominated in this category unless it was in a realistic position to win. Besides, to make up a story that weird (the film takes place in a world where single adults must find love in a set amount of time or else they are turned into animals) and yet be critically acclaimed so highly definitely deserves recognition. Kenneth Lonergan not only directed a great story in Manchester by the Sea, but he also wrote it. That, along with Hell or High Water, rose to such high prominence this year mainly because of their screenplays. I don’t know if I agree with it, but I predict the academy will go with the safe pick.
Predicted Winner: La La Land
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
The way Moonlight tells a story of the same person in three acts centered on their youth, adolescence and adulthood is very well done. Arrival is visually stunning and successful in making a far-fetched alien premise seem somewhat realistic. I thought Hell or High Water should have been nominated here due to its gritty, dusty but beautiful Texas backdrop that tells a story in itself. La La Land reels you in right from the beginning, though. The highway dancing scene as the movie opens is legendary and rivals a film from yesteryear like West Side Story, and the museum scene is as magical as Mary Poppins or Singin’ in the Rain. This should be a no-brainer here.
Predicted Winner: La La Land
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
I’m a huge fan of movie scores. Scores are an underrated supplementary piece needed to complete a great movie. I have no idea how the score from Nocturnal Animals did not get nominated. It is one of the best scores I have heard in a long time, and plays such a big part into the mood of the film. The same goes for Hell or High Water, which features a score that flawlessly compliments the western genre. As I mentioned in my review of the film, I thought the score for Jackie was extremely overrated and actually annoying at times. With all that being said, La La Land is the winner here regardless. The movie is married to the music just as much as the music is married to the movie. Moonlight’s score is amazing, but I think the academy goes with the clear favorite.
Predicted Winner: La La Land
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
I would have loved to have seen “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street make this list. It is such a fun song to a fun movie that failed to get the recognition it deserved. John Carney’s movies have had songs that have shown up here before (Once, Begin Again), but for some reason Sing Street did not make this year’s cut. Justin Timberlake’s “Can’t Stop the Feeling” is a catchy, feel good pop record that will get serious consideration here based on its radio success. The song from Moana will be in the discussion as well. Although Disney movies have traditionally done well in this category, I think “City of Stars” gets the win. The song basically tells the story of the movie, and although it’s not made for radio, it’s still catchy in its own right. It will be a classic, just like its film.
PREDICTED WINNER: “City of Stars,” La La Land
The rest are all specialized categories that I just figured I’d take a shot at predicting. Here are the rest of the categories and nominees (the predicted winners are in bold):
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
Fantastic Beats and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
BEST FEATURE DOCUMENTARY
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America ***This was the best, most complete documentary I have ever seen***
13th
BEST SHORT SUBJECT DOCUMENTARY
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
BEST FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann ***This movie is going to be remade for a U.S. release, starring Jack Nicholson in his first starring role since The Bucket List in 2007. If Jack is up for getting out of retirement to star in this project, then it must be good. ***
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Ennemis Interieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
BEST SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
BEST SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
BY: CHRIS GUEST
Reel Movies Matter 